tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4683970826895755480.post1563272775246952605..comments2024-03-28T21:32:26.550+00:00Comments on Bruce Charlton's Notions: Statto world and the birdemicBruce Charltonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09615189090601688535noreply@blogger.comBlogger22125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4683970826895755480.post-56039312258226926632020-03-25T15:18:16.273+00:002020-03-25T15:18:16.273+00:00@William - or, that 'law' by which demons ...@William - or, that 'law' by which demons and their servants (evil epople in general) always tell victims what they are going to do to them before doing it, and thereby gain at-least-tacit consent. Bruce Charltonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09615189090601688535noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4683970826895755480.post-75676262421573271252020-03-25T14:46:20.364+00:002020-03-25T14:46:20.364+00:00Have you seen this, Bruce?
https://www.gov.uk/gu...Have you seen this, Bruce? <br /><br />https://www.gov.uk/guidance/high-consequence-infectious-diseases-hcid#status-of-covid-19<br /><br />Does the left hand not know what the right hand is doing?William Wildbloodhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13231219533755925897noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4683970826895755480.post-68210740639792033612020-03-25T13:32:40.617+00:002020-03-25T13:32:40.617+00:00Ah, sod it, bc, anon was me. Sorry.
Ah, sod it, bc, anon was me. Sorry.<br /><br />deariemenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4683970826895755480.post-21757598681242958322020-03-25T06:38:46.786+00:002020-03-25T06:38:46.786+00:00I don't like publishing comments by 'Anony...I don't like publishing comments by 'Anonymous'. Bruce Charltonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09615189090601688535noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4683970826895755480.post-86183794830891250932020-03-24T22:26:28.124+00:002020-03-24T22:26:28.124+00:00"And yet the golden age of medical breakthrou..."And yet the golden age of medical breakthroughs happened before the application of statistics to medicine, up to about 1970. ..."<br /><br />A simple interpretation of that is that the medics and medical scientists stopped producing good stuff and, in floundering about looking for help, tried statistics. In other words stats wasn't a cause it was a symptom.<br /><br />It was Rutherford who opined that if your experimental data needed statistical interpretation it wasn't a good enough experiment. Which is pretty droll given how good a job the Poisson distribution did in the analysis of alpha-scattering. (Or so my memory of my fresher physics lab claims.)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4683970826895755480.post-16485822305878094882020-03-24T12:50:01.314+00:002020-03-24T12:50:01.314+00:00For anyone still following this thread. Have a loo...For anyone still following this thread. Have a look at box days larest post. “ The need for a debt jubilee”.Sean fowlernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4683970826895755480.post-54577008973437456882020-03-24T12:48:49.741+00:002020-03-24T12:48:49.741+00:00Thank you, Bruce. You and William M. Briggs — as R...Thank you, Bruce. You and William M. Briggs — as Rich said at the top — have seemingly been the only sane voices out there of late.Charlienoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4683970826895755480.post-52534046092992149812020-03-24T12:13:05.021+00:002020-03-24T12:13:05.021+00:00@d And yet the golden age of medical breakthroughs...@d And yet the golden age of medical breakthroughs happened before the application of statistics to medicine, up to about 1970. Somehow innumeracy didnt stop all the biggest breakthroughs. And when the stattos arrived, and when everyone at med school was taught tests and methods, the genuinely useful discoveries dwindled and died out.I<br /><br />It just takes too long, and too much thinking, to learn how properly to use stats in medicine. So few have ever done it - Bradford Hill, Alvan Feinstein, Ken Rothman (the last two of whom I met) are just about the only ones I know of.<br /><br />James Le Fanu wrote an interesting book on the subject of medical discovery - he interviewed me, David Horrobin and several other people I respect.<br /><br />You might know Roy Calne- he was a real surgical innovator, a great man.Bruce Charltonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09615189090601688535noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4683970826895755480.post-47799312149770264942020-03-24T11:29:14.517+00:002020-03-24T11:29:14.517+00:00On the other hand: one of the many lessons from Ge...On the other hand: one of the many lessons from Gerd Gigerenzer's excellent book on Risk is how innumerate most doctors are. Not just ignorant of statistical methods but seriously useless with numbers.<br /><br />And it's not just numbers. A friend of mine used to work with a surgical team testing an invention of his. He found they had no idea what a controlled experiment might be. They didn't really grasp the advantage of altering variables one at a time. These clever, skilled people were mere children when it came to science. You must have met many like them, bc?deariemenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4683970826895755480.post-5367832175302469502020-03-24T10:52:08.567+00:002020-03-24T10:52:08.567+00:00Bruce, I agree. The demonic controllers use their ...Bruce, I agree. The demonic controllers use their human agents for just as long as these are useful to their aims (which are not those of the human agents) and then discard them.William Wildbloodhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13231219533755925897noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4683970826895755480.post-30900978296909516862020-03-24T10:43:29.008+00:002020-03-24T10:43:29.008+00:00@Matias - As I have often said (e.g. in Thought Pr...@Matias - As I have often said (e.g. in Thought Prison http://thoughtprison-pc.blogspot.com/ ); 'right-wingers' are actually leftists - unless their world view is *primarily* based upon 'a religion'. This crisis has merely unmasked them for what they always were - but, my word, hasn't it done so with amazing speed and clarity!<br /><br />A phrase from Thought Prison came to mind earlier today:<br /><br />"the West cannot be saved. To ‘save’ the West would entail re-winding and recovering a pre-Western perspective and re-running the process - hoping that this time the desired attributes would re-emerge but without self-destructive Leftism.<br /><br />"But the West has self-destruction built-in; or rather Western civilization is built-over a simultaneously self-dug pit of nothingness into which it will, sooner or later, fall.<br />*<br />"How can you save something which *so much* wants to kill itself?<br /><br />"Take your eye off Western Civilization for just a moment and it will be swinging from the rafters with its own belt around its neck."Bruce Charltonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09615189090601688535noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4683970826895755480.post-29948834201612360802020-03-24T10:39:04.660+00:002020-03-24T10:39:04.660+00:00@William - Certainly we are in a global dictatorsh...@William - Certainly we are in a global dictatorship Now - but the question (see today's post) is whether it will be sustained or will itself collapse into chaos (destroying its own methods of governance) due to continuation of the processes that it has initiated. That would, indeed, be my prediction. Bruce Charltonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09615189090601688535noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4683970826895755480.post-44023909433487089882020-03-24T10:02:54.593+00:002020-03-24T10:02:54.593+00:00After democracy comes dictatorship. Plato said tha...After democracy comes dictatorship. Plato said that a long time ago and here we are again.William Wildbloodhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13231219533755925897noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4683970826895755480.post-17108179647247206752020-03-24T08:10:03.627+00:002020-03-24T08:10:03.627+00:00Many so called right-wingers are embracing the mea...Many so called right-wingers are embracing the measures against the birdemic, because it has seemingly confirmed their suspicions and because the measures give credibility to things that they have said about the dangers of globalization and mass immigration. <br /><br />But this kind of political mindset of exploiting the situation to one's own advantage is very destructive in the long run. It is quite obvious that, from the perspective of the global establishment, the birdemic gives a good excuse to collapse the economy in a situation in which the debt bubble was going to collapse anyway (as I commented on your blog on Nov 27 2019). But if you are right, the collapse of the economy will be used as an excuse to introduce wage and price controls etc, measures which will only lead to more economic uncertainty and a collapse of world trade.<br /><br />If we accept totalitarian measures as the proper response to the threat of the birdemic, surely we must accept more totalitarianism because of the economic collapse, which is a much greater threat. I would assume that most stattos approve of socialism, as long as it is explained as a supposedly new scientific approach. Matias F.https://www.blogger.com/profile/12018666354109074544noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4683970826895755480.post-6131486559103016372020-03-24T06:04:32.313+00:002020-03-24T06:04:32.313+00:00I've always regarded NT as a man consumed with...I've always regarded NT as a man consumed with pride; GC was great when one half of Harpending and Cochran - however since Henry died it has been like Gilbert without Sullivan (or MacCartney after the Beatles).<br /><br />I had, until this crisis, regarded VD as a mixed bag - but overall one of the good guys, author of the best professional blog - and we had exchanged cordial e-mails. However, this is one value of things having come to a point and the advent of Antichrist - the situation reveals true character; or rather, it reveals whose side you are really fighting on. Bruce Charltonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09615189090601688535noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4683970826895755480.post-58402068109538432102020-03-24T05:50:33.068+00:002020-03-24T05:50:33.068+00:00Wrt VD, it's increasingly clear that he *welco...Wrt VD, it's increasingly clear that he *welcomes* a totalitarian power grab as such, and is embracing the birdemic for that reason. In other words, he was never on the right side to begin with.Wm Jas Tychonievichhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07446790072877463982noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4683970826895755480.post-5797253823274915502020-03-24T01:47:37.604+00:002020-03-24T01:47:37.604+00:00On other corners of the Internet where I will rema...On other corners of the Internet where I will remain anonymous, I've joked that Vox Day is on the Chinese Communist payroll as a "fifty cent soldier:" someone who is paid to fake grassroots support for all the actions of the Party. I started this noticing this maybe two years ago, if not earlier, because he was unironically praising Chinese economic nationalism and telling everyone that unilateral Chinese exploitation of Africa was both desirable and inevitable (while at the same time being silent on Chinese economic predations on the West).<br /><br />I think the reason he fell hard for the birdemic hysteria is because he [permanently] relocated to Northern Italy, the country that is now (apparently) the hardest hit by the epidemic. I guess this goes to show you that even the smartest of us can fall for the biggest lies if those lies are told with enough gusto and terror.<br /><br />If this event is the prelude to a worldwide Communist takeover, then how people have reacted will show you how trustworthy they are.Ingemarhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05695600705603036692noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4683970826895755480.post-62604847930907040862020-03-23T22:49:46.434+00:002020-03-23T22:49:46.434+00:00@RB There are many lies and much disinformation, a...@RB There are many lies and much disinformation, and consequently vast incoherence and nonsense. What I've stated are what I discern to be the key principles. Of course, all evidence is necessarily shaped by assumptions of motivation. To know where we are, one must know the intended destination. Knowing that, it is simple enough to see the logic behind the apparent insanity and illogic of official policies (which is only just beginning to raise a few concerns in most people)Bruce Charltonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09615189090601688535noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4683970826895755480.post-24024526271680385122020-03-23T21:14:24.975+00:002020-03-23T21:14:24.975+00:00Stats - the weapon of the bureaucrats who are the ...Stats - the weapon of the bureaucrats who are the legions of evil.James Highamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14525082702330365464noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4683970826895755480.post-18210749522119070712020-03-23T21:10:12.021+00:002020-03-23T21:10:12.021+00:00The type you describe mostly strike me as middle-c...The type you describe mostly strike me as middle-caste economists so it shouldn't come as a surprise that their natural discernment isn't the best. They are two-dimensional office thinkers but no doctors or priests. You don't count your way on the battlefield.<br /><br />In the movie Braveheart (I think), the 'advisor' of the English king comes to give him some snobby, calculated advice on how to attack the enemy, which ends up with the king throwing the advisor out of the window.<br /><br />And that was that!Adilhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12458942641355740167noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4683970826895755480.post-11695873259459936732020-03-23T20:55:18.477+00:002020-03-23T20:55:18.477+00:00Exactly. In my experience, people who really know...Exactly. In my experience, people who really know how to use statistics (and are responsible for applying it and making it work in the real world) use *some form* of the Pareto Principle. It is a way to sort out priorities, so we do not waste resources on low priority items. The funny thing is, Pareto is not very egalitarian, and furthermore recognizes a hierarchy of importance, and we cannot have that! I am also somewhat disappointed to see some people in that list of names that I would have thought previously would have been more perceptive.Freddy Martinihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07503658203357240239noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4683970826895755480.post-77760570724010120152020-03-23T20:15:05.809+00:002020-03-23T20:15:05.809+00:00I've been able to cull nearly all of my daily ...I've been able to cull nearly all of my daily reading. Thank you, Bruce. You are one of the only sane voices out there. Richhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14131427883067501547noreply@blogger.com