Sunday, 13 September 2026

We observe what we expect, and nobody is exempt: the Birdemic, Heinkel He 113, and Scarecrow Shells

An RAF spotters guide to identifying the He 113 - an aircraft that did not exist. 

The extent to which it is true that we see what we expect is much greater than usually believed, and few if any people are exempted. The most highly trained and expert observers are susceptible as much as, or perhaps even more, than the naive and inexperienced (as suggested by The Emperor's New Clothes fable). 

The way this works is mainly in terms of interpreting and explaining phenomena - in making sense of our sensory observations. 

After all, we cannot observe any-thing, without an interpretative framework, scheme, or built-in expectations; that draw a boundary around the "thing", to distinguish it from the boundless mass of visual and other stimuli. 


There are many examples:

1. The Heinkel He 113 fighter aircraft in the Battle of Britain, WW II. 

This was an invention of German propaganda, and did not exist as an operational aircraft; but was spotted, fought, shot-down in considerable numbers by RAF pilots, anti-aircraft gunners etc who had been taught about it in official British documentation. In other words, it was seen by highly-trained people who in most cases had almost superhumanly accurate eyesight - and whose lives depended on accurate observation.  

2. "Scarecrow" anti-aircraft shells, used against British night bombers in WWII. 

 British Intelligence services told the RAF bomber aircrew that the Germans had devised anti-aircraft artillery that simulated the appearance of an exploding bomber, and not to be fooled. This was false, and the appearance was actually caused by exploding aircraft; but many aircrew saw scarecrow shells. 

3. Human adrenal gland microscope slides.

When I was researching nerves in the human adrenal gland, with the help of a pathologist who was able to obtain tissue samples from people who had died suddenly; I learned that the gland would almost immediately, and even before death, begin to self-destruct when humans had a prolonged or painful death. 

It turned-out that the microscope slides in the anatomy department consisted of such badly damaged adrenal samples, that were full of pus (white blood cells) and with the original structure obliterated. Nonetheless, generations of microscopists - including many with very high levels of microscopic expertise - had seen on these slide what they expected (i.e. an adrenal with a structure like an egg - the "white" being glandular tissue and the inner "yolk" being neural tissue.

4. The Birdemic of 2020.

During the spring and early summer of the Birdemic, the world was saturated with (knowingly false) propaganda that provided a new system for interpretation of the vast filed of human illness. Whether the "real" Birdemic germ actually existed as "sequenced" is unsure; but what is certain is that a majority of the "cases" , including the fatal cases, had what would until a few months previously have been given other diagnoses such as influenza. 

But during the Birdemic, people saw the Birdemic wherever they looked for it - and especially as a cause of death. They used a very broad and inclusive "official" diagnostic template to diagnose Birdemic, a schema which scooped-up all other respiratory diseases such as bronchitis and pneumonia, and indeed all sorts of other diseases that had some respiratory symptoms - or even just pyrexia (raised temperature (a raised temperature was enough to exclude sick patients from even entering a UK hospital).   

It became very-nearly as if the Birdemic, which was a made-up and unvalidated diagnosis, had become the only genuine medical problem. Even acute and curable cancers were left untreated for many weeks, as all effort was directed at the Birdemic-entity.


It can be seen that essentially everybody is vulnerable to observing what they expect; indeed we can hardly help doing so - and errors are only corrected when an alternative template for interpretation can be provided, and prevails.  

It is therefore crucial to be aware of the source and motivation of those who provide the interpretative schemata by which we understand the world. 

Because when a wrong, distorted, and harmful set of expectations are created and accepted; then the error becomes self-perpetuating.  

***

Note: One major current and recent example relates to "AI" which term has become hyper-inclusively redefined; such as to include already long-standing computer techniques - such as CGI in movies, photo-shopping, speech to text, and text-to-speech. 

All such are swept-up to construct an "epidemic" of "AI" progress, wherever we look! Theories are officially presented a major media asif facts, scares as imminent threats, day-dreams as reality-around-the-corner. A process closely-analogous to the Birdemic. 

Vast numbers of people - especially those with the highest levels of training and expertise in computers, are currently (and increasingly) in thrall to the "AI" conceptualization - and interpret reality in that light. Yet some of these here-and-now AI-dolators saw-through the Birdemic scam... 


Proving that everybody is susceptible, nobody is immune. 

And reminding that our best clue concerning malign instances of manipulation; is to ask who is propagating the interpretative scheme, and what are their likely motivations

Then to seek and devise an alternative interpretation of phenomena, on that basis.  

2 comments:

  1. Yes, I agree. These are good examples, especially, as you point out about the Heikel fighter:

    "In other words, it was seen by bighly-trained people who in most cases had almost superhumanly accurate eyesight - and whose lives depended on accurate observation"

    That is why worrying about who is the smartest is pointless, as if intelligence conferred infallibility in thinking. Which it definitely doesn't. Everyone can be fooled, but also, everybody can learn from his mistakes.

    As far as the AI stuff, at this point, I view it as basically a high resolution illusion. It was always possible to develop methodologies to statistically sample text and recombine it; you can even theoretically do it by hand given enough time. It was just that it was too labor-intensive to be profitable. Add in massive computing power and highly elaborate models and the illusion can have a higher and higher resolution, but it is nonetheless an illusion.

    With enough computing power and sophisticated enough models, you can imitate basically anything. For instance, you can make a model that fits where some particular stock has gone up or down over a period of time. But if you try to invest money based on it, you will eventually lose it, because the model doesn't represent any real understanding.

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  2. @NLR - Good points about "AI".

    "as if intelligence conferred infallibility in thinking. Which it definitely doesn't"

    Yes indeed. This is something known to anyone who has done creative work - whether in science or elsewhere. The large majority of most intelligent people are (and always have been) crippled by false assumptions - because right assumptions are not part of intelligence.

    You can see this with most of the extremely high intelligence people in the sciences I know, such as biology. And this applied even in the past, when there were great scientists. The institutionally dominant biologist of the mid-20th century in Britain was Conrad Waddington; who seems to me, to have been cleverly wrong-headed about... almost everything!

    Mathematical or geometric techniques applied to biology have a very poor record of leading to anything valuable, because of the fundamental assumptions of mapping bits of the world onto numbers.

    Perhaps the best of the mathematical biologists WD Hamilton, made his insights despite the maths, rather than because of it! Hamilton was steeped in biology, biological thinking, and was a naturalist, and he wanted to Know - That is what matters. Or, more exactly his helpful maths was the simplest of formulae - but it was only helpful when not pushed too hard.

    In biology and medicine, it is best to regard mathematics as a summary - a summary based on assumptions about correlations, and assumptions about the biological validity of even the simplest of mathematical functions - such as averaging.

    Very few people realize that mean-averaging is extremely rarely valid in biology; because to assume the mean is meaningful in a particular usage, usually makes many assumptions that we Know *not* to be true.

    Nuff said - I wrote plenty about this in the past.

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