tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4683970826895755480.post1993994937085473814..comments2024-03-28T17:44:11.289+00:00Comments on Bruce Charlton's Notions: Could 'the Fuhrerprinzip' save the West from death by red tape?Bruce Charltonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09615189090601688535noreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4683970826895755480.post-12343289154220488182011-02-06T17:01:05.526+00:002011-02-06T17:01:05.526+00:00The Emperor's nose has a real life example in ...The Emperor's nose has a real life example in recent 'climate science'. Nobody has a clue how to measure the 'average temperature' of the earth (or to check if the estimate is correct), nor can anybody predict the future climate (because they see no need to test the accuracy of predictions) - so the whole thing is merely an exercise in guessing the length of the unseen nose and manufacturing a consensus about the correct answer.Bruce Charltonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09615189090601688535noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4683970826895755480.post-5354635061402828662011-02-06T16:57:01.592+00:002011-02-06T16:57:01.592+00:00Averaging only increases precision (reduces random...Averaging only increases precision (reduces random error) - it does nothing to remove or control systematic error. <br /><br />This used to be obvious to scientists, but they seem to have 'lost it' on this as so many things: so I tried to argue the case here:<br /><br />http://charltonteaching.blogspot.com/2010/10/scope-and-nature-of-epidemiology.htmlBruce Charltonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09615189090601688535noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4683970826895755480.post-62507088378278312992011-02-06T13:36:48.170+00:002011-02-06T13:36:48.170+00:00Your example is unfair. The honest man would not ...Your example is unfair. The honest man would not hazard a guess, since he had not seen the proboscis. Government tyranny has made everyone a liar here, as usual.<br /><br /><i>I would see any such apparent effect as common sense operating through a majority of individuals.</i><br /><br />I think this underlies what we see in "Wisdom of Crowds". Common sense is not that common. If we can keep the kooks away, better decisions can be made. Many judging panels for sporting events, appeals courts, etc. are three or more people to weed out the outlier opinion and capture more common sense.rightsaidfrednoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4683970826895755480.post-83929545001339262532011-02-06T08:46:38.431+00:002011-02-06T08:46:38.431+00:00I assumed that was what you meant - and that is wh...I assumed that was what you meant - and that is what I think is mistaken! <br /><br />After all, the book suggests no causal mechnism by which the Wisdom of Crowds is supposed to work, and the examples have alternative explanations.<br /><br />In fact the book is nonsense, despite being interesting!<br /><br />If WoC were accepted as a generally valid principle, it would lead to the Emperor's Nose fallacy... (I paraphrase)<br /><br />"Nobody had ever seen the Emperor. But people wondered how long was his nose? So it was commanded that everybody in the Empire should guess its length, the civil service compiled all these guesses, and took an average. Thus they discovered the length of the Emperor's nose..."Bruce Charltonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09615189090601688535noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4683970826895755480.post-39078145161315323422011-02-06T08:11:21.685+00:002011-02-06T08:11:21.685+00:00bgc, I had in mind this book. Not mob action but ...bgc, I had in mind <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wisdom_of_Crowds" rel="nofollow">this</a> book. Not mob action but aggregation of individual decisions.rightsaidfrednoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4683970826895755480.post-50170535478876878972011-02-06T07:17:33.873+00:002011-02-06T07:17:33.873+00:00RSF - is there wisdom in crowds? I'm not convi...RSF - is there wisdom in crowds? I'm not convinced; quite the opposite. I would see any such apparent effect as common sense operating through a majority of individuals. <br /><br />The Byzantine empire confirmed a new Emperor (divinely chosen - or, at least, that was the aim and hope) by acclamation in the Hippodrome. I see this as a pragmatic check, no more. Checking that the new Emperor commands enough mass support to govern. <br /><br />The Emperor could be (and was) removed if powerful groups regarded his appointment as having been a mistake: the army, the bureaucracy (mostly run by eunuchs; these more-or-less separated the Emperor from the rest of the world); mass popular disobedience, and of course the Orthodox hierarchy would sometimes oppose, and remove, an Emperor; and thereby induce a regime change. <br /><br />This seems in most ways preferable to a 'democratic' system of periodic mob vote.Bruce Charltonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09615189090601688535noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4683970826895755480.post-70122662014134675122011-02-06T06:26:34.205+00:002011-02-06T06:26:34.205+00:00And leadership by individual persons is the only f...<i>And leadership by individual persons is the only form of leadership - anything else being control by non-humans processes.</i><br /><br />Sometimes there is wisdom in crowds.<br /><br />It is vitally important that a competent individual gets the leadership position. We've made great advances in finding the competent: IQ, aptitude, and personality tests; record keeping in general. We've also gone massively in the other direction, with our smashing of traditional leadership aristocracies, the fetishizing of the exotic, and the embracing of feminism and the youth culture.rightsaidfrednoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4683970826895755480.post-24034349744835387132011-02-06T02:05:11.502+00:002011-02-06T02:05:11.502+00:00I don't want a fuehrer, I want my hundreds bac...I don't want a fuehrer, I want my hundreds back, since this was our legal organization before the state came to dominate everything. <br /><br />By the way, Jesus did not die for our sins, White Christ killed the worm, the Germanic symbol for wyrd and how even the gods were forced to suffer their fate in an ethereal ring-dance of birth, justice, revenge, death and rebirth. <br /><br />3 sec translation of ancient Scandinavian childrens song. <br /><br />Take the ring and let it wander.<br />From the one and to the other. <br />The ring is hidden and can't be seen.<br />Just about now the ring is with you. <br /><br /><br />VolksverhetzerAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4683970826895755480.post-27478140818428058512011-02-05T23:57:28.967+00:002011-02-05T23:57:28.967+00:00Bellamy's "industrial army". This is...Bellamy's "industrial army". This is not the cure for bureaucracy. Believe it or not this actually is the historical origin of our bureaucracy (and Nazism).joshnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4683970826895755480.post-23428403092696898522011-02-05T09:26:19.342+00:002011-02-05T09:26:19.342+00:00In practice the nazis did not dissolve bureaucracy...In practice the nazis did not dissolve bureaucracy. On the contarry : they doubled and tripled it.<br /><br />For every problem under the sun were rivalling organizations of the state, the parte and the armed forces. <br /><br />Admitted : Hitler put 'Sonderbeauftragte' into place to get anything done, but why were they required at all ? Because the german Reich was more of abureacracy than the EU.nknoreply@blogger.com