Draw your own conclusions:
28,000, 11,000, 18,000, 26,000, 1,500 people per year (page 51, rounded-down, 2014-19) in the UK died of influenza - in each of the past five years
"As of 5pm on 10 April... 9,875 have died." in the UK; with death attributed-to the birdemic.
This will come as a surprise to no-one, but in Nevada we have been told not to celebrate Easter, due to the black death sweeping across land apparently.
ReplyDeleteThe 1500 figure. Was that for 2019 or 2020?
ReplyDelete"The 1500 figure. Was that for 2019 or 2020?" 2018-19
ReplyDeleteConclusion. There is something rotten in the state of Denmark and I won’t be pursuing a career as a statistician:-)
ReplyDelete@SF - The interesting thing is that - although artificially-inflated by (deliberate) inclusion of deaths from other causes (such as cancer, cardiovascular disease, other types of non-upper-respiratory tract infection, and influenza (which seems to be diagnosed at a historically unprecedented - ie unbelievable, i.e. falsely - *low* level this year - suggesting it is being diagnosed as birdemic from which is is difficult to distinguish precisely). This happens partly from the policy to include the larger number of people dying-with birdemic to those dying from-birdemic - and also the new banning of post-mortem, which would sometimes confirm a different non-birdemic cause of death) --- even despite all this the *official* death toll is statistically very moderate. It is the fact of the political and media microsocope being held onto it (and the insane-evil over-reaction) that creates the impression of a plague birdemic - not the actual numbers. So, don't blame the stattos for this one!
ReplyDeleteChecking the Office of National Statistics - the overall death rates are nothing out of the ordinary. They show a small number of "deaths with Covid-19 mentioned on the death certificate", but I'm still trying to understand the footnotes which don't really make sense. My impression is they are trying to retain some integrity in the presentation of these statistics.
ReplyDeleteSimilar to the committees that declared Covid-19 was NOT a Highly Communicable Infectious Disease (HCID), and posted a statement to that effect on the govt website effective 19 March.
I know from my former life there are honest civil servants, but it's really difficult now.
I recall that you have taught epidemiology, so I should like to know your opinion of what would happen to the C19 death figure in the UK if there was no social distancing and people went about their daily business as before. Would the figures soar as it is claimed because there is no herd immunity, nor is there a vaccination yet, or would we simply have an extra 'flu' season number of deaths added to the usual flu season deaths?
ReplyDeleteBarry
@Barry - Thing about large scale lying is that *nobody* knows what is really happening - that's why real scientists must be honest, all the time, about everything (to do with science).
ReplyDeleteWatch this -
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lGC5sGdz4kg