Sunday, 9 March 2014

Cock-up or Conspiracy? A fake dichotomy

*

In England there is a (military-slang) phrase which purports to describe the alternatives for why-things-go-wrong -  Cock-up or Conspiracy - which means incompetence and stupidity, versus an organized plan.

This phrase, and the attitude it represents- is a fake dichotomy, false alternative, dishonest choice; and is covertly-intended to dismiss the possibility that significant groups of powerful people operate strategically to do harm.

*

The C-up v Consp idea is that incompetence is so common in human affairs, that anything which goes wrong can (and should) be explained by stupid accidents, rather than deliberate purpose.

Therefore when deliberate purpose is observed, inferred from a long-term and repeating pattern of behaviour, it can be dismissed as naive 'conspiracy theorizing'.

*

But stupidity is not fatal so long as people are honest and well-motivated - because honest and well-motivated people can perceive and learn from obvious errors even when they are stupid; and avoid repeating them.

Stupid people do not put their hand into the fire twice, when it hurts a lot the first time. 

Pure stupidity does not explain denial of the harm of harmful outcomes, or persistence in voluntary actions which wholly fail in their purposes and lead to all-round bad outcomes.

*

On the other hand, although human conspiracies by wicked people are very common, indeed universal, they usually fall-apart from short-term selfishness and attempted exploitation among the conspirators - orc-ish squabbling and mutual slaughter.

But conspiracy is not the proper concept to understand these phenomena - what we are talking about is pursuit of a long term strategy.

*

People who share a long term strategy have no need to 'conspire' in order to cooperate.

People who share a long term strategy will repeatedly put their hands (or somebody else's hands) into the fire - because they are more interested in the long term plans than in immediate consequences.

People who share a long term strategy will agree to deny harmful consequences, will lie about benefits that don't exist, will  persist in doing things which seem to lead to much harm and no good - IF these actions serve their strategic purposes.

*

Looked at in this way, it is crystal clear that the leadership of The West (US/ UK/ Europe especially) have a long term strategy upon which they agree (so there is no need to 'conspire') - and we can see this because they behave quite differently from stupid people.

In particular, it is not explicable in terms of incompetence that Western foreign policy again-and-again has an anti-Christian strategic purpose - because the anti-Christian outcomes are ignored, denied and hidden; and because there is a pattern, and because the strategy is pursued despite immediate-term and severe disadvantages to the West.

More generally, Western foreign policy is overall very obviously destructive of Good - and this is not a cock-up but is strategic; because only strategy can explain the pattern of denial, dishonesty, repetition and short-termist self-harm.

A foreign policy designed and implemented by stupid people, a series of cock-ups - would be much more rational, more beneficial, much better - than what we have had for the past half century.

*

Western leaders really are operating in service of evil and in pursuit of destruction.

To believe otherwise is wishful thinking: just naive.

The extent to which their service to evil is deliberate or unsuspecting is more debate-able - but the increase in public lying and elaborate propaganda shows that the balance is changing.

As the consequences of their cooperative strategies get plainer, so more and more of the Western elite are actively planning destruction, wittingly embracing evil.

*