Anyone who was driven, by some inner compulsion, to read this blog in chronological order, from the summer of 2010 when I began to write on a daily basis (!); would rapidly discover that I have been expecting (therefore in a sense predicting) the collapse of our civilization - for most of the past 12 years!
Clearly, that has not happened! At least, not yet; and it is interesting to speculate why not.
I am as sure now as I was then that our System is unsustainable; and for a multitude of reasons - that multitudinousness of individually-fatal stresses being why the civilization is inevitably doomed; since all causes cannot be addressed at once, or quickly enough -- even if there was a will to reverse the causes of collapse: which there is not.
Also because (and for the first time in history) a deliberate and strategic, top-down program for destruction of Western civilization.
This encompasses neglecting, worsening and denying 'natural' problems (such sub-fertility - which is itself a consequence of deliberately-encouraged religious apostasy and the exclusion of the spiritual from public discourse).
...And gratuitously creating many new and individually-lethal System stresses (mass immigration, 'climate change', antiracism, birdemic-peck etc.).
If this analysis is broadly correct; how, then, has the System survived?
The answer I have gradually come to accept is that 'the conspiracy theorist' point-of-view is broadly true; in that most of the acute problems - apparent 'emergencies', and genuine catastrophes - are either permitted or actively-caused by the System itself. And therefore, when the System feels threatened - it simply stops causing these problems.
It is relatively easy to stop creating crises, because people (on the whole) will only cause problems when encouraged, assisted and subsidized to do so. Thus, huge areas of national or local crisis can (if the will exists) be all-but eliminated - simply by removing the massive structures of positives incentives that have been their ultimate cause.
The reason I took so foolishly long to recognize the self-caused nature of most crises and emergencies; is that I used to know (from personal experience) a fair bit about the people who were leaders at a regional and national level - and I realized that they 'believed in' what they were doing - believed that they were 'doing good' with their various lethal schemes.
And therefore it seemed to me that National 'elites' were observably not conspiring actively to inflict social problems.
Where I went wrong is assuming that the regional/ national leadership class were actual leaders. I did not then see that all their important instructions were coming-down from a much smaller, supra-national global 'elite' - which was the level at which strategic decisions were made.
National governments and media, multinational corporations and large social institutions (such as the UK National Health Service) are just middle managers, just minions, just implementers of plans set at different levels.
In other words, it is at the large - geopolitical - scale where the ultimate decisions are made and the ultimate causes of many problems set-into-motion. Vast areas such as 'the economy', 'finance', 'science'. 'health', the mass media etc. are managed to a very high degree.
Visible, impacting, crises and problems in all of major social systems are mostly deliberately caused - but caused at a hierarchical level far above the level at which they are 'managed'.
Thus the managers are often genuinely striving, in their minds - albeit dishonestly and incompetently - to address the problems...
Albeit; among managers 'addressing' a problem does not mean solving or eliminating the problem - it means 'responding' to it; doing some-thing that can plausibly (i.e. plausibly to managers) be argued to be a 'positive' and helpful response, within the constraints of careerism and bureaucratization.
Anyway; setting aside nuances for the sake of clarity; while the System or Western Civilization is indeed doomed to collapse; I have often been fooled by deliberately-caused crises and emergencies, into believing that the collapse was imminent - whereas, because the acute crisis/ emergency (whether of the economy, finance, health - or whatever) was deliberately-caused - the crisis/ emergency could later - when it had cause the desired results (and, at least, up-until-now) just as easily be cured.
So much for the surface...
Deep down, however; the longer the System persists while continuing to be degraded; and while its efficiency, effectiveness, and self-regulating honesty are all incrementally being-destroyed - the more that the depth and breadth of eventual/ inevitable collapse will continue to increase.
So the 'good' news is that Western civilization has not collapsed yet; but continues along its paths of value-inversion, mass spiritual damnation, and the active pursuit of evil goals...
The bad news is that - when it does happen, and it will - the collapse of The West will now be far worse than it would have been a decade ago.