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I have been predicting (in blog comments) for the past two years that Obama would not run for a second term as President - that he would prepare an exit. I won't bore you with my reasoning, but I was as sure of this as I have been of anything in current politics. And I made a bet with myself that if I got this wrong, then I would shut-up about politics forever, since it would then be clear either that I knew nothing about the subject, or that it was impossible to know anything about the subject, or both. There is still time, but it certainly looks like my pol pundit days are numbered.
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