There does not seem to be any reliable correlation between the degree of talent, flair, specialness exhibited when young; and ultimate achievement.
Of course there sometimes is. My namesake (but not related) Bobby Charlton was perhaps England's greatest footballer of all time; and his talent was evident from a very early age. Indeed, he was famous for his prowess even in a county obsessed with the sport.
For instance; at age eleven the local education authority redirected Bobby from the rugby-playing state grammar school he was supposed to attend according to residence, to the soccer-playing school in Bedlington (which had earlier been attended by my father - himself no mean footballer at semi-pro level).
And when Bobby was old enough to sign professionally it was a national event, and his choice of Manchester United was widely reported in the press.
Yet there are many exceptions. I have, over the years, known or known-of quite a few young people whose flair and talent seemed destined for greatness; yet the sparkle went flat, or they took the wrong path, or their interests changed - or the world failed to recognize their special gifts. (This bureaucratic era has, indeed, become actively hostile to genuine creativity.)
Exceptions also work the other way: In 1981 went to a superb evening of "Alternative" comedy at a local venue; which boasted a galaxy of fresh talent; such as Rick Mayall - who dominated the show. But there was also a rather lame, embarrassing, and forgettable female double act called French and Saunders... i.e. Dawn French and Jennifer Saunders (then aged about 24 or 25).
Of all those brilliant comics; it was French and Saunders who (not long afterwards) went on to the best and most illustrious careers - individually and as the same duo.
Yet, at the time, I could detect nothing of their later brilliance - probably because it wasn't yet there.
A year or two later; I went to a one-woman revue in the Edinburgh Fringe Festival by someone called Emma Thompson; which was so bad that it ranks as one of my most embarrassing, least enjoyable evenings in the theatre.
Admittedly, Emma Thompson was barking up the wrong tree; and she was never a good comedian as such - but she became, of course, one of the very best movie actresses of the past several decades.
Yet I could see nothing of this, back in the early 1980s. At the time; I just wanted to avoid ever watching her again!
Perhaps the most stark example of late-emerging talent is provided by my English Literature tutor at Durham University: Derek Todd. Derek had earlier been a lecturer at Queen's University, Belfast; where a young undergraduate brought some poems to show him. Derek found them not-good, and gently tried to dissuade the chap from further efforts in that direction.
That untalented young student poet was Seamus Heaney - who later won the Nobel Prize for Literature*.
My assumption is not that Derek missed Heaney's budding talent and ability, but that it was not then evident.
The point is that sometimes people change - and quite a lot. And sometimes that can happen very late; as when novelists take up writing in middle age or old age, and discover a surprising talent.
One of my wife's favourite light-comic authors is Jodie Taylor; who began writing and published only after retirement, aged about sixty - which is very old for a humorous author (most of whom cease to be really funny before thirty). From this late standing-start; she has poured-out dozens books-after-books ever since her debut in 2013, at an astonishing rate by any standard.
This is very unusual, very unlikely - maybe unique.
But it happened - which just goes to show.
* I personally don't rate Heaney as a poet. More exactly, I do not regard him as a real poet. But that's another story.
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Living long enough to become a late-blooming talent:
Thomas Hobbes (1588-1679) really got going as a writer only around the age of 60 -- eg. Leviathan (1651).
Michael Oakeshott (1901-90), apart from a couple of books, really got going as a systematic political theorist only after retiring from LSE in 1968.
Thinking about the contributions of 20th c. mathematicians who lived into their 90s -- K. Ito of "Ito's Lemma" (1915-2008) and J L Synge (nephew of the Irish playwright) (1897-1995) spring to mind -- could demonstrate what G H Hardy observed about mathematics being a young man's game.
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