History tells us... that history is a misleading guide to 2020

A word of caution. One common response among thoughtful people who are trying to make sense of 2020 is to look at history - in particular the fall of Rome. 

This is, in itself, an immediately misleading comparison; since when Rome fell, the capital of the Empire had been moved to Constantinople for several generations - and the Empire continued in the East for another 1000 years!

But the main problem is that our present situation is unprecedented - and for many reasons - and once these differences are given due weight, comparisons are very unlikely to be helpful. I will give only three, big, reasons, why we now live in a different world from any in history.

 

First, the world changed with the agrarian and industrial revolutions, beginning in Britain in the middle 1700s. Since then the economy has transformed to one of almost-continual growth (until 2020) - to sustain a world population of 7 billion compared with the 1 billion through much of history. In other words, there are currently about 6 billion people on the planet who depend on the industrial revolution system (technology, coordinated specialization, trade etc.) for their survival. 

Second there is the decline in religion from its historical role as the prime motivator in Men's lives. The extent to which religion has declined has been nailed-home in 2020 by the fact that nearly all the churches in the world (of all denominations) closed their doors and all-but ceased activities. Spiritual and religious reasoning is excluded from global discourse. Thus we are now living in a thought-world unprecedented in human history - a 'this-worldly' world, where 'good' has become (in practice) equated with pleasure or the absence of suffering. 

This narrowing of concern and shortening of time-horizons has had a huge effect on Men's understanding and responses, their attitudes and aspirations.  

A third factor is, of course, the interconnectedness of the world by political, administrative, transport and communications media. First the development, then the the extension, of bureaucracy from many national networks to a single international System. 

The idea of an almost simultaneous world-wide coup - such as occurred in the early months of 2020 - was impossible until recent decades; because there was no unified Global Establishment, and there would have been no global means of coordinated monitoring and control. 

The modern reality of a world where beliefs come almost wholly via the mass media, and where learning from personal experience and by common sense counts for nothing (and are often demonised) likewise is an almost wholly new phenomenon (perhaps only a sliver of the historical intellectual elites have ever functioned in this abstract way before). 

 

Those are just three of the biggest reasons why the situation of 2020 is almost wholly unprecedented; and why we cannot confidently look to the past for lessons and guidance. 

Indeed, any lessons we draw from history are more likely to be harmful than helpful.